Obey your Trading and Risk control rules

In an earlier blog entry I defined a stock strategy as a combination of   Algorithms + Goals + Symbols + Trading Rules.    It is tempting to take the output of the Bayes Analytic engine and apply the recommendation without obeying the rules.     Based on results from test trading earlier this year this is a very bad idea which can cause what is profitable strategy to be less profitable.      This concept is also draws from ideas described in  “When Good traders Loose“. Continue reading “Obey your Trading and Risk control rules”

Bayes Analytic Engine is really Bayes+ Morphed for prediction at high volumes

I started out to building a simple Bayes classification engine what the industry would normally consider a naive Bayes classifier.    In the process of testing and enhancing for stock trading I needed the same world view but very different engineering.     In the process it evolved in different directions with many changes away from the naive classifier. Continue reading “Bayes Analytic Engine is really Bayes+ Morphed for prediction at high volumes”

How Day purchased and Week of Month affects option trading sucess

The Bayes Analytic engine is designed to predict probability of success for a given offer to meet a goal.   In some instances the goal could be will a particular customer buy from a specific offer.   I originally designed the stock prediction Engine to answer the question of which recent trades have the highest probability of meeting a specific goal such as increasing in value by 23% over a 7 day period.   The idea was that if we treat every option trade like an offer if we could isolate the set of offers which provided the highest probability of reaching the goal then we could buy those and skip the trades which offer a lower probability of delivering a profitable trade. Continue reading “How Day purchased and Week of Month affects option trading sucess”